First post-revolution elections in Arab countries turn out to be pro-Islamist. In Tunisia and Egypt, the majority of the people voted for Islamist parties.
The first round of Egypt’s elections is led by the Freedom and Justice Party (ex-Muslim Brotherhood which had been banned by Mubarak for decades). It was supported by 40 percent of the voters. Next comes Al-Nour, a radical Salafi party. None of the democratic movements except The Egyptian Bloc have made it into the coalition government. Although the final results will only be known on January 13, the general election trend is already quite clear.
Observers report a similar, pro-Islamist choice prevalent in Tunisia which was the firestarter of Arab revolutions. Tunisian Islamists won the elections but have to share the power with secular parties. Now, the victorious Islamists claim that they’re not radical at all and pledge to retain all the democratic values, including women’s rights, which is a serious issue in Islamic countries. Arab countries have two scenarios – a radical or a democratic one, depending on the country’s specific circumstances, an expert in Oriental Studies Sergei Demidenko believes:
“The domestic and foreign policies of Arab countries will depend on the historical circumstances in which they have found themselves. Turkey’s leading Justice and Development Party took the helm as a moderate Islamist movement and now it’s not Islamist at all. So we shouldn’t jump to conclusions.”
Professor of the Moscow State Institute of Foreign Relations Veniamin Popov explains the success of Islamist parties:
“The Arab revolutions were secular but Islamists were active in the revolutions’ final stages, which is natural as they had been the most persecuted groups under the previous regimes and they were more organized than young rebels who were brought together by social networks only and had no parties or factions. That’s why the Islamists were more efficient.”
Popularity of radical movements is also inspired by external pressure, which can be seen in Syria. The country’s opposition, which is supported from abroad, rejects any dialogue and therefore, unrest continues, which creates a vicious circle.
Although experts find talks about total islamization premature, they nevertheless warn that the rise of political Islam could affect the whole of the Middle East, and mainly the Arab-Israeli conflict. 6 mln Jews in Israel are surrounded by about 400 mln Arabs and the latter may be tempted to attack the country, having gained support from other 1,5 mln Muslims from all over the world. Thus, the global community needs to encourage the settlement of the conflict right now, mainly in Palestine and Israel, as radical Islamic sentiments may be slowed down by the creation of an independent Palestinian state and the protection of Israel.